Chance and Basic Probability

In this subsection newspaper articles are provided which illustrate various aspects of probabilistic language. They include references to risk, relative probabilities given altered circumstances and general claims. These articles, and similar ones which occur weekly in newspapers, can be used to create an awareness of the need to understand and interpret probabilistic language. Consider the following questions as appropriate for the articles given below.

• What unusual claims occur?
• How could claims be justified in terms of probability?
• The contexts where probabilistic claims appear vary widely. Compare and contrast different contexts where claims are made.
• Is enough information given to work out all probabilities of interest?
• How/where would you find the extra information needed to calculate relevant probabilities?

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Active links for newspaper articles below

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A tax on stupidity

Alarm at young blacks' detention

All downhill from chubby children

Australia high risk for hearts

Beware the pushy fish eater

Bookies rate Elliott a 14-1 chance to topscore in series

Bookies wail after Dettori's super seven

Capricorns crash through

Computer right so far - it's the Kangaroos

Crunch time for number

Dreams do come true - for some

Friday the 13th - It's a fortune

Fruit for thought on tooth decay

Heart attack risks up for middle-age smoker

Honours have order of own

Hope of new colon cancer gene testing

Lotto's child cheats

Nicotine replacement does help

Obesity may slow fall in heart deaths

Odds of cancer shorten for tall

Over the limit and you're asking for trouble

Oz early asteroid alert at risk of crashing

Perils of extra 5kmh

Peters could play Santa Claus

Rescued by Macca

Schoolgirls are smokers, drinkers

Smokers alerted to dental dangers

Smoking big risk for women

Spend your win wisely

Tasmanian star in a state of uncertainty

Teenagers take to the soft drink

That's Life - Long-nosed dogs

Two aces in one round beat 363 million-1 odds

US public tips Brockovich to knock down Gladiator

Weight guidelines too lenient: study

Women risk more injuries

Chance Language

Airline cabin study clears the air

Apology on rocket failure

Blue moons all just timing

Buckley's chance

Common HIV source in 4 women '80 pc likely'

Infection killed tiger

The following articles have no student questions or teacher discussions.

50km/h back-street speed limit on cards

Cheating on wife a health hazard

Crash test critical of passenger van, 4WD safety laws

Go jump, it's safer than a day by the sea

Job-seeking woes for single parents

Luckiest man in the world

More young risk assault

National strategy to reduce risk of asthma

Stressed young women take risks

Where to next?

Numeracy in the News - Overview