Source: The Mercury, 22 September, 2001, p.29


Amazing poll flip
puts ALP in lead

THREE days after a
Bulletin Morgan poll
gave the Coalition Gov-
ernment a huge 20-point
lead, a new poll by the
same company has put
Labor just back in front.
	The latest Morgan re-
search, released yesterday,
showed Labor had edged in
front with 51 per cent of the
vote on a two-party preferred
basis to the Coalition's 49 per
cent.
	Were an election held now,
the result would be deter-
mined on minor party prefer-
ences, the polling showed.
	The differing results are
explained by different polling
methods.
	The first, giving the gov-
ernment a 60 per cent to 40
per cent lead over Labor, was
conducted by telephone, but
the new poll was conducted
last weekend using face-to-
face interviews, which Mor-
gan said was the only consis-
tently reliable measure of
voting intention.
	Following the US terrorist
attacks, refugee problems
the collapse of Ansett and a
fall in consumer confidence, it
found the Liberal-National
Coalition had 41 per cent
support (up 4.5 per cent in a
week), equal to the ALP.
	Support for all minor par-
ties had dropped.
	Morgan Poll head Gary
Morgan said the company
would review its telephone
poll methods after the sur-
prisingly different results.
	Mr Morgan said he knew
telephone polls were not as
accurate as those done face to
face but was surprised at the
extent of the inaccuracy.
	"It was greater than I
thought it would be," he said.
	Mr Morgan said that in
times of crisis, with one party
getting a lot of publicity,
telephone polls were biased
towards that side.
	Labor leader Kim Beazley
conceded the ALP was suffer-
ing in the polls for taking a
principled stand on the illegal
immigrants on board the
Norwegian freighter Tampa.
AAP


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