Source: The Mercury, 27 September, 1996, p.85 Source: The Mercury, 27 September, 1996, p.85
By TED HOPKINS
THE computer seems to
like it at the business end of the
season. So far it has tipped the
winner for each final. If North
wins, it will make it nine out of
nine for Swinburne University
maths professor Stephen
Clarke, who is the writer of the
program.
It calculates North has a
63% chance of beating Sydney
by an expected margin of 13
points. This margin includes a
six-point home ground advan-
tage made up of four points to
North and minus two points
for Sydney.
A ground advantage of one
goal is around the middle
range for teams competing at
the G. It's nowhere near the
kind of margins enjoyed by
interstate teams in their home
finals, but in a close game six
points can mean the difference
between winning and losing.
What the computer is
effectively saying is that if the
game were played on neutral
territory, North is a seven-
point better side than Sydney,
based purely on rating the
scores of each team, with a
weighting given to more re-
cent games.
The computer does not take
into account player selections,
injuries or tribunal reports.
While there seems to be a
perception that Sydney is near
to a certainty beaten, the
computer doesn't think so. A
63% chance of North winning
still gives the Swans a 37%
look in, which is a fair tilt at
the flag.
There is another level of data
not fed into the computer
which also gives the Swans a
fair go. They have the equal
best defence in the compe-
tition and have been credited
with the most number of kicks
of any team this season.
With the exception of a
shaky start and its game
against Fremantle in Perth,
Sydney has either won, or has
been very competitive when it
has travelled interstate.
These are all the signs of a
genuine premiership con-
tender.
But there are also other
"success indicators" to take
into account, which is why
North looms as the premier-
ship favourite.
During the finals the tempo
and the pressure increases.
"Easy" possessions and clear
space are harder to find. When
the heat is on, it follows that
the team with the proven
ability to win the hard ball
contests on the ground and in
the air, and then deliver long
and effectively, has the advan-
tage.
North should win because
percentages count in a grand
final. Clear possessions are
luxuries, if you can get 'em!
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Index - Chance and Basic Probability